For those of us who have been following the radical populist right over the past couple of decades, one of the central questions today is whether the radical populist right is likely to capitalize on the CoVid-19 crisis or whether the crisis will relegate it to the margins of contemporary politics. At the moment, it appears that the dramatic socioeconomic impact of the crisis has generally negatively affected these parties.
In most countries, support for these parties – as measured in polls – has declined, in some cases, for instance in Norway, quite precipitously. Yet these results should be taken with caution. National crises tend to provoke a “rallying around the flag” no matter what – how else could one explain the temporary rise in support for Donald Trump and the British Tories?
Once the crisis is over, however, it is to be expected that the situation will change. It is likely to give way to a critical examination of the multiple failures of leadership, instrumental in turning a serious health threat into a national disaster of epic proportions. And with it, there will be a moment of reckoning that is likely to leave few governments untarnished. Under the circumstances, it is reasonable to expect that the radical populist right – given it was not in a position to make decisions during the times of CoVid-19 – is going to make somewhat of a comeback.
Prominent radical right-wing populist leaders are already gearing up their rhetoric for the day after. In what follows, the focus is on the arguably most influential current leaders, Marine Le Pen (Rassemblement National, RN, formerly Front National) and Matteo Salvini (Lega, formerly Lega Nord). Under Marine Le Pen’s predecessor, Jean-Marie Le Pen, the Front National had the status of the primus inter pares – a first among equals – on the radical populist right, particularly with respect to programmatic innovations.
Even if with Marine Le Pen, the Front has lost some of its luster, it still serves as a point of reference for a number of like-minded parties. With Matteo Salvini, however, Marine Le Pen is confronted with a serious challenger. Under his leadership, the Lega soared in the polls, surpassing by far its competitors on the right, such as Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italy, relegated to the margins of the Italian party system.
La Marine
Like other major politicians in France and beyond, Marine Le Pen was caught cold by the dramatic surge of the pandemic; worse still, after a meeting with a right-wing politician in mid-March who tested positive, she went into voluntary self-quarantine although she was asymptomatic. As the leader of one of France’s major political formations, she was consulted by the president of the republic. As a result, she could hardly claim that she had been sidelined. More significantly, the next presidential elections in France will be held two years from now. And Marine Le Pen is once again likely to be Macron’s main opponent. Under the circumstances, Marine Le Pen had to tread lightly, moderating her tone.
In fact, in early March, Marine Le Pen had already noted positive signs that the president of the republic was taking leave of his “anti-national ideology,” being prepared to agree to closing the EU’s external borders. She also noted that she was not only seeing signs of “a total questioning of the ultraliberal model,” of outsourcing no matter the price, of privatization, but also of “an ode to public service.” All of this, she noted, suggested that the president had “understood his errors: with respect to these issues”.
This conciliatory tone did not last long however; neither did moderation. By the end of the month, Marine Le Pen switched to full attack mode, ready to exploit the crisis for potential political gain.
There was a simple reason for this reversal of strategy: unfavorable poll data. As the crisis progressed, Marine Le Pen’s public image deteriorated. By the beginning of April, only a bit more than a fifth of the French public had a positive impression of her.
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Hans-Georg Betz | Radio Free (2020-04-15T00:00:00+00:00) Will France's Marine Le Pen be a profiteer or victim of the pandemic?. Retrieved from https://www.radiofree.org/2020/04/15/will-frances-marine-le-pen-be-a-profiteer-or-victim-of-the-pandemic/
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