The United States state department has moved forward in its game of chess with Afghanistan by delivering an eight-page draft of a peace agreement. An uncompromising letter by US secretary of state, Anthony Blinken, made it clear that an interim government was required and called on the Afghan government and Taliban negotiators in Doha to negotiate a power-sharing agreement.
Meetings are planned in Turkey in the coming weeks but whether they take place or not depends partly on the Taliban’s reaction. But given the group’s power over much of Afghanistan, it will probably consider the negotiations to be a useful step in taking over the whole country in due course.
The Afghan government takes a very different view, with President Ashraf Ghani resolutely opposed to an interim government. However, US President Joe Biden is convinced he will have to agree at some stage because the US really does want out of the country – at least for the 2,500 regular troops still present. If the US president does get his deal – even if it has to be imposed – then most of the other NATO forces (close to 10,000 in largely non-combat training roles) will go as well and Afghanistan will be left to its own devices to build a cohesive, peaceful state.
Fighting season begins
It is not just the 2,500 troops that concern the Afghan government. The US currently has 18,000 private contractors in the country, comprising 6,000 Americans, 7,000 foreign nationals and 5,000 Afghans.
Once the US troops are withdrawn, foreign nationals may be deeply reluctant to continue if the security situation deteriorates further. Yet a recent report to Congress said that the departure of foreign nationals and US contractors “may be more devastating to the effectiveness of the Afghan security forces than a withdrawal of our remaining troops”.
The prospect for a good outcome is presently close to remote and, as my column last month pointed out, the Taliban has acted on a clever strategy throughout winter and is poised to enter the so-called, post-winter ‘fighting season’ to increase its control over much of the country.
During the winter it persistently refrained from attacking foreign troops and put most of its efforts into assaults on Afghan police and army units. It has also been involved in a long-running campaign of assassinating public figures, especially but not only in Kabul.
An escalating threat
Victims have included judges, independent television journalists, producers and other staff, as well as ministerial officials. Responsibility was not claimed for many of the attacks and suspicions remain that other armed opposition groups besides the Taliban are involved, including Isis elements that remain a presence in the country.
From a US security perspective, getting the troops out is the right move, with plenty of bipartisan support in Congress, not least because from that perspective the two-decades-long war is now recognised as a lost cause. The bitter reality is that the Taliban is privately recognised as the likely victor but is of less concern because the group does not directly affect US security interests.
However, the situation could grow sticky if a Taliban-dominated Afghan government fails to prevent al-Qaida or Isis increasing their international presence. If Biden ends up presiding over a renewed domestic paramilitary threat from Afghanistan more than 20 years after 9/11, the fallout will be deeply damaging for his presidency.
This is not far-fetched, given the expansion of extreme Islamist groups elsewhere. In Syria, Isis is already staging a comeback and, according to a report by the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War:
Print
Paul Rogers | Radio Free (2021-03-13T09:00:05+00:00) Will the US push to exit Afghanistan bring the war back to Western cities?. Retrieved from https://www.radiofree.org/2021/03/13/will-the-us-push-to-exit-afghanistan-bring-the-war-back-to-western-cities/
Please log in to upload a file.
There are no updates yet.
Click the Upload button above to add an update.