President Biden’s decision to withdraw all US troops from Afghanistan by 11 September is seen as final unless there is a sustained Taliban campaign to force the US military into a rapid and ignominious retreat. In that event, the troops would stay throughout the winter but Taliban leaders have little need to force the Americans out and are most likely content to wait the four months beyond the original May departure date.
In Afghanistan, there are widespread fears that the Taliban have already been so successful that they will quickly assume full control, initially of rural areas and then the whole country. That prospect creates concerns for many, especially for women’s rights.
For now, the impact of the US pull-out on the Afghan government’s negotiations with the Taliban is difficult to assess. The weak administration in Kabul of the Afghan president, Ashraf Ghani, has been protected from having to find a deal by the US presence, and the Taliban have also been able to play for time by blaming the US occupiers for all ills.
In any case, this is all overshadowed by what the United States does next and any idea that the Pentagon is taking its complete leave of Afghanistan is a myth. The main post-occupation aim will not be to support human rights and the development of Afghanistan but to prevent a new upsurge of al-Qaida, Isis and other paramilitary groups that might threaten US interests there or abroad.
Remote warfare
In addition to the 2,500 US troops in the country, there are reported to be another 1,000 who are not counted in the official tally, many of whom are assumed to be special forces. As The New York Times put it: “The murky accounting results from some Special Operations Forces having been put ‘off the books’, Pentagon officials say, to include some elite Army Rangers, who work under both the Pentagon and the CIA while deployed to Afghanistan.”
There are also 16,000 civilian contractors, including 6,000 Americans. Some of those may remain, especially the more than 1,000 who already have armed roles, as many of them are former special forces soldiers now under contract.
Many of these contractors would be available for intelligence gathering but they would just be a small part of an intervention capability, all part of a more general transition to low-profile, remote warfare. Much of this remote warfare would involve airstrikes relying heavily on standoff weapons and armed drones to minimise risks to aircrews.
Back in the early days of the war, 2001-2, the US linked up with Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to take on Afghanistan. Now, new links are expected to be made, to the annoyance of both Beijing and Moscow.
More generally, the US can use carrier-based air power in the Eastern Mediterranean and Arabian Seas, there is still a large base on Diego Garcia in the Indian ocean and there are many facilities in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the Emirates, not forgetting the regional air force headquarters in Qatar and the new naval facility at Duqm in Oman, handily located outside the congested waters of the Gulf (and also available to the UK in its new ‘imperial east of Suez’ role).
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Paul Rogers | Radio Free (2021-04-24T08:00:06+00:00) US retreat from Afghanistan escalates neighbours’ scramble to fill the gap. Retrieved from https://www.radiofree.org/2021/04/24/us-retreat-from-afghanistan-escalates-neighbours-scramble-to-fill-the-gap/
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